Jerome O’Reilly |
@NationalReilly

The past month has not been good for the embattled Ukrainian nation.

The armed forces of Ukraine have suffered from manpower shortages since the end of the 2023 counter-offensive, and since the beginning of 2025 this shortage has become severe. It has been reported by Western sources that 20,000 soldiers deserted from the front in October 2025 alone. For context, there are only 900,000 active service personnel in the Ukrainian army, so a monthly desertion rate in the tens of thousands is devastating.

Since the end of the summer, the Russians have concentrated their offensive towards the fortress city of Pokrovsk. Before the war, the city had a population of 80,000, with 60 per cent speaking Russian as a first language. It became Ukraine’s main logistics hub for the defence of Donetsk Oblast. Following the pivotal Russian victory at Avdiivka, Pokrovsk became the next main target in the war. The city’s population was largely evacuated and the Ukrainians dug in to weather the onslaught.

Yet, due to existing manpower shortages and the failure to match Russian firepower, air power and, crucially, drone production and drone tactics, the Ukrainians were outflanked in the town of Rodynske, to the north of Pokrovsk, from April to August 2025. This then allowed the Russians to storm the city from the south from October.

In response to the unfolding situation, the Ukrainian reaction was mixed. President Zelenskyy ordered that the city must be held at all costs, an order that has been widely criticised in recent weeks. The logic of the order was that the Ukrainian armed forces must demonstrate to Western media that they are still capable of fighting in order to maintain levels of foreign support, even if such actions defy basic military logic.

Futile counter-attacks were ordered with heavy casualties, often to show online audiences that the Ukrainians were still active in areas of Pokrovsk that were already overrun. A notable effort involving a Black Hawk helicopter strike last week in the north of the city garnered attention, but did not change the reality of the situation.

Pokrovsk is now fully occupied by the Russians and they have encircled the neighbouring city of Myrnohrad. Instead of ordering an orderly retreat from the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket, the Ukrainian General Staff ordered the defending battalions to stay put and counter-attack where possible. Cut off from all supply and reliable communication, the fate of these soldiers currently seems grim. It is therefore unsurprising that troops forced to carry out the impossible have begun deserting in large numbers.

The Russians are also advancing swiftly towards the southern city of Huliaipole, threatening the defence of Zaporizhia Oblast. Within the past 24 hours, the Russian army has also bypassed significant Ukrainian defences to the north and has partially seized the city of Syversk, a position they previously held with ease for nearly three years. This is another clear indication that Ukraine’s manpower shortage is crippling. A fortress cannot be defended without soldiers in the trenches. No amount of Western Wunderwaffe will solve that basic fact.

On the home front, Zelenskyy’s government has been embroiled in a corruption scandal. On Monday, anti-corruption bodies accused several individuals of orchestrating an embezzlement scheme in the energy sector worth about 100 million dollars (£76 million), including at the national nuclear operator Enerhoatom. Some of those implicated in the scandal are close associates of Zelenskyy.

Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko and other key ministers and officials received payments from contractors building fortifications against Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

Among those alleged to be involved are former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov and Timur Mindich, a businessman and co-owner of Zelenskyy’s former TV studio Kvartal95. He has reportedly fled Ukraine on a one-way flight to Israel, as he holds dual citizenship. When authorities raided his Kiev mansion, they found dollar bills wrapped in Federal Reserve packaging and noted that Mindich owned a gold-plated toilet.

Russian strikes are now targeting Ukrainian energy assets daily, and major cities are suffering from blackouts lasting between eight and sixteen hours as the nation heads into winter.

It is becoming increasingly clear why Zelenskyy is so keen on continuing this madness. Political insiders are content to steal British, European and American funding for personal gain while ordinary Ukrainians die in their thousands on the front.

With the continued and renewed advance of the Russian army, ongoing Western support for the war will become untenable. It is time to offer Ukraine a future other than total destruction. The war is lost.